02
Everyday Essentials and the Dining Rebound
+15.0%Transactions · Jan → Mar
+17.0%Spend · Jan → Mar
Essentials including food, fuel, pharmacy, and utilities accounted for roughly 32% of all Q1 debit transactions, the largest share of any category.
Fast food transactions declined 6.4% from October to December 2025, but in Q1, they grew +18.7%, and sit-down restaurants grew +18.3% alongside them. Both formats accelerated together rather than at each other's expense, with most of the growth concentrated in the February-to-March window.
Spend for key essentials continued to rise in Q1. Utility spend per transaction climbed nearly 15%, a pattern consistent with the cost of heating and peak winter heating bills. Grocery basket spend continued to grow as well: just +6.0% transaction growth but +8.3% in dollars, continuing the trend from Q4 of higher per-trip spend.
Key insight
The simultaneous rebound in fast food and sit-down dining is notable because these formats often move in opposite directions during periods of consumer caution. Both growing in tandem, and at similar rates, suggests Q1 dining demand recovered across most price points rather than recovering only at the value end.
03
The New Year, New You: Resolution Spending Met Refund Season
+26.3%Spend Growth · Jan → Mar +18.8%Transactions · Jan → Mar 9MCC Categories Tracked
Q1 spending is when new-year intentions get tested against budgets, and the 2026 data shows real money behind resolutions. People spent +26.3% more on fitness gear, athletic apparel, and beauty services from January to March.
Transaction volume edged up modestly from January to February (+3.0%), then accelerated meaningfully from February to March, when transaction frequency climbed +15.3% and dollar spend climbed +17.3%.
The timing may also align with two outside factors. The IRS opened the 2026 filing season on January 26 with the first refunds beginning to land in mid-February; and, according to IRS data, the average federal refund in early 2026 was running approximately 10–11% higher than 2025, at roughly $3,500.
Spring weather also began arriving in much of the country during this same window. By March, sporting goods spend was 47% higher than January. Shoe stores climbed +58%, and bicycle shop spend more than doubled (+116%).
Key insight
The categories with the biggest spend surges all share an outdoor or seasonal weather theme, including sports apparel, athletic equipment and bike shops. The pattern is consistent with spring readiness purchases concentrated in March, rather than with January gym-membership-style resolution spending.
04
A Subscription Reset: February's Audit Cycle
~16%Of Q1 Debit Transactions Were Recurring -9.8%Transactions · Jan → Feb
+14.0%Transactions · Feb → Mar
Q4 2025 showed every recurring payment category growing, a counterpoint to the popular "subscription fatigue" narrative. Q1 2026 doesn't reverse that conclusion, but it adds a nuance: every subcategory of recurring payments dipped in February before rebounding in March.
Digital goods transactions fell -11.5% from January to February. Cable and pay TV fell -7.9%. Subscription/continuity merchants fell -8.8%. Even digital apps, Q4's fastest-growing recurring category at +25.8%, fell -3.9% in February before bouncing back +15.9% in March. The category was nearly flat over the full quarter (+0.2% spend, +2.9% transactions), the dip and the recovery effectively cancelled each other out.
Key insight
The March recovery in nearly every subcategory aligns with the subscription hopping trend, (the practice of repeatedly canceling and rotating streaming services based on single shows or seasonal viewing to save money), which continues to be common as subscription prices rise.
05
The Experience Economy Goes Outside
+10.8%Transactions · Jan → Mar
+6.3%Spend · Jan → Mar
-12.3%Spend · Feb Pullback
Experience-economy spending followed the wider Q1 pattern: a February pullback (-7.1% transactions, -12.3% dollars) followed by a strong March rebound (+19.3% transactions, +21.3% dollars).
Q4's fastest-growing experience subcategories were indoor and online: movie theaters surged +112.9% on holiday-season blockbusters, video arcades and online gambling grew.
Q1's leaders followed early spring weather and motivations outside. Tourist attractions and exhibits grew +60.6% in spend. Marinas and marine services grew +37.6%. Bicycle shops more than doubled. Online gambling kept its position as the largest single experience subcategory, although spend was relatively flat compared to Q4.
06
Travel Breaks Loose — and Costs Climb
+22.4%Transactions · Jan → Mar In Q4 2025 travelers were cautious, even with seasonal demand: airline transactions grew modestly, and hotel spend held essentially flat. In Q1 2026, consumers were booking more travel and paying more for it. Every line item in the travel category grew double digits, and spend growth (+37%) significantly outpaced transaction volume (+22.4%) from January to March, a 15-point gap.
Several factors likely contributed to consumers paying more per booking, from longer stays and more premium experiences, to higher costs. Consumers were hit with the early days of rising jet fuel prices, which began in late February and March due to global supply chain disruptions.
Hotels and lodging, flat through Q4, climbed +38.1% in dollar spend from January to March on +22.4% transaction growth. Travel agency transactions grew 24%, the fastest of any travel subcategory, with average ticket value up +42.5%. Cruise lines added another 15.8% on top of Q4's gains, with another large average ticket increase of (+34.7%). Airlines posted +36.0% spend growth on +21.5% transactions.
Key insight
Direct booking on airline and hotel apps remains the dominant pattern in U.S. travel, but agency-led bookings actually outgrew direct channels in Q1. While some consumers may be planning longer or more complex itineraries, which travel agencies are most useful for; price sensitive travelers are likely drawn to agencies for promotional savings or bundled pricing discounts.
07
Digital Payments: More Consumers Pay with Stored Credentials
63.6%Digital Share · Transactions 24.0%Card on File · Up from 20.7% in Q4 $61.23Avg Card on File Transaction
In Q4 2025, 59.4% of debit transactions were digital. In Q1 2026, digital transactions increased to 63.6% with Card on File payments driving most of the growth.
Key insight
Card on File transactions, when stored credentials are saved within an account or payment app, grew from 20.7% of Q4 debit transactions to 24.0% of Q1, the largest shift of any payment method in the data. Average Card on File transaction value also rose to $61.23, well above the average for all payment types. The combination of higher transaction count and higher average value signals deeper consumer adoption.
08
A Home & Garden Spending Surge
+22.3%Transactions · Jan → Mar 14MCC Categories Tracked
Spring weather opened the project window, and consumers spent +45.5% more by March. Transactions also grew +22.3%, with most of that growth concentrated in February-to-March (+33.5% spend, +32.8% transactions).
The growth was wide and consistent across the category. Home supply warehouse stores, the largest subcategory in Q1 spend, grew +44.8%. Hardware stores grew +76.9% in spend. Garden and lawn supply stores more than doubled in transactions (+103.7%) and grew +144.1% in spend.
Key insight
Outdoor categories like garden, pool, and nursery posted the largest spend gains, while indoor furnishing categories grew at more moderate single-digit-to-low-double-digit rates. Combined with the +44.8% surge at home supply warehouses, consumers are clearly diving into spring project plans.